Whether based on academic theories or discovered empirically by humans and machines, all financial models are at the mercy of modeling errors that can be mitigated but not eliminated. Probabilistic ML technologies are based on a simple and intuitive definition of probability and the rigorous calculus of probability theory. Unlike conventional AI systems, probabilistic machine learning (ML) systems treat errors and uncertainties as features, not bugs. They quantify uncertainty generated from inexact model inputs and outputs as probability distributions, not point estimates. Most importantly, these systems are capable of forewarning us when their inferences and predictions are no longer useful in the current market environment. These ML systems provide realistic support for financial decision-making and risk management in the face of uncertainty and incomplete information. Probabilistic ML is the next generation ML framework and technology for AI-powered financial and investing systems for many reasons. They are generative ensembles that learn continually from small and noisy financial datasets while seamlessly enabling probabilistic inference, prediction and counterfactual reasoning. By moving away from flawed statistical methodologies (and a restrictive conventional view of probability as a limiting frequency), you can embrace an intuitive view of probability as logic within an axiomatic statistical framework that comprehensively and successfully quantifies uncertainty. This book shows you why and how to make that transition.
